This demo keeps the book in memory. A new server starts from the seed, so a bind here does not survive a cold start. Set DATABASE_URL to a free Postgres database to keep it.
Fairtrigger · parametric risk exchange
Rain in March is a number.Clear it in seconds.
A builder loses money when the gauge hits. A capital desk can hold that risk. Fairtrigger is the technology layer where their agents meet, the price is arithmetic, and the payout is the same arithmetic later. It is not an insurer.
30
March seasons in the archive
8
Southeast airports
1.50×
published load
The problem
A weather delay is already in a public record. The fight is about who will say the number out loud.
The buyer
Jobs slip when it rains, freezes, or hits a heat threshold. The loss is real. The argument about the loss takes the rest of the season.
The capital
A desk will hold a measurable risk if the trigger, the cap, and the correlation are visible before the premium is paid.
The layer
Fairtrigger prices the archive, runs the auction, and locks collateral in a ledger. A licensed counterparty, still unassigned in this demo, would stand behind the contract.
How it works
01
Say the worry
Plain English becomes a station, a threshold, an attachment, a payout, and a cap.
02
Price the archive
Expected loss, a published 1.50× load, collateral, fronting, platform, and tax. The parts sum to the premium.
03
Desks compete
Capital agents bid a multiple. Correlation limits can force a pass. The low full line clears.
04
The gauge pays
Collateral sits in escrow. If the archive hits, the payout is arithmetic. Nobody adjudicates a story.
Read the line before the premium
Same city. Same month. Two contracts. The premium follows the terms.
The sentence was “we lose money when it rains a lot in March on our Chattanooga jobs.” The full structure and the smaller line are both priced from the Open-Meteo archive at Chattanooga Lovell Field. A premium near $153.27 is the smaller line. It is not a discount on the $2,375.85 cover.
Parametric contract
Fairtrigger
EQ-SPECIMEN
Not bound
Full March specimen
March daily precipitation
Pays
$2,500
per trigger day
Attachment
7
days, then it pays
Cap
$10,000
most this can pay
Pays $2,500 per day Chattanooga Lovell Field (USW00013882) records at least 0.25 in of precipitation, after the first 7 such days, in March. Cap $10,000.
Station
USW00013882
Threshold
≥ 0.25 in
Window
March
Premium for this line
$2,375.85
Expected loss $1,333.33. Fairness 100.
$2,375.85 is the premium for $2,500 per trigger day after 7 days, cap $10,000.
A day at 0.25 in pays the same as a washout, and a day just under it pays nothing. The series is reanalysis at Chattanooga Lovell Field (USW00013882), so a storm that soaked the job and missed the airport is basis risk.
Licensed counterparty
Exchange partner — pending assignment. Fairtrigger does not insure this contract.
Demo — not an offer of insurance. Contracts will be issued by a licensed carrier.
Parametric contract
Fairtrigger
EQ-SMALLER
Inside a modest mandate
Smaller line
March daily precipitation
Pays
$1,250
per trigger day
Attachment
10
days, then it pays
Cap
$4,000
most this can pay
Pays $1,250 per day Chattanooga Lovell Field (USW00013882) records at least 0.25 in of precipitation, after the first 10 such days, in March. Cap $4,000.
Station
USW00013882
Threshold
≥ 0.25 in
Window
March
Premium for this line
$153.27
Expected loss $41.67. Fairness 100.
Smaller line. $153.27 buys $1,250 per trigger day after 10 days, capped at $4,000. It is not the full cover: that one pays $2,500 per trigger day after 7 days, cap $10,000, published stack $2,375.85.
A day at 0.25 in pays the same as a washout, and a day just under it pays nothing. The series is reanalysis at Chattanooga Lovell Field (USW00013882), so a storm that soaked the job and missed the airport is basis risk.
Licensed counterparty
Exchange partner — pending assignment. Fairtrigger does not insure this contract.
Demo — not an offer of insurance. Contracts will be issued by a licensed carrier.
The economics
Every dollar in the $2,375.85 stack is labeled.
Expected loss $1,333.33. Gross premium $2,375.85. Published load is 1.50×. This quote is 1.50×. Fairness 100. The archive returns about 56¢ per premium dollar.
Expected loss$1,333.33
Mean of what this contract would have paid in the archive.
Risk load 1.50×$666.67
The amount above expected loss. The published load is 1.50×. Capital bids compete here.
Cost of collateral$67.95
8% a year on the cap, for 31 days.
Fronting fee$144.76
7% of the risk price, for the licensed counterparty slot.
Technology fee$50.00
Flat fee for the technology layer. Not a percentage of the premium, and not revenue from taking the risk.
TN surplus lines tax$113.14
5% applied to premium including fees. Illustrative tax treatment.
Gross premium$2,375.85
What the buyer pays.
With 30 seasons, empirical 99% VaR is the worst season (1996). Read it as a stress, not a precise tail model.
Thirty Marches
What the full line would have paid.
Would have paid in 8 of 30 archived March seasons. Worst was 1996 at $10,000.
19952024
Open-Meteo historical weather API (ERA5 / ERA5-Land blend and station-adjusted models) sampled at the airport coordinates. Not a certified NOAA climate product.
The book, live
Collateral already has a map.
Arcs are capital. Hotter cities are where a desk is already loaded. The auction beside this is July heat at Charlotte, a different contract from the March rain specimen.
Cleared
July Charlotte, NC
Pays $1,000 per trigger day after 6 days. Cap $5,000. Premium $1,642.59 buys exactly this line.
0
Cleared
$2,375$1,544
Amber tick is the published 1.50× stack at $1,663.57. Winner is $20.98 inside that stack.
Ironwood Capacity
$2,240.292.05×
Ironwood Capacity bids $2,240.29 at 2.05× expected loss. Pays up for the tail. Does not chase flow.
bid · trust 99
Lantern Re
$1,789.391.62×
Lantern Re bids $1,789.39 at 1.62× expected loss. Southeast weather. Preview series are priced wider.
bid · trust 99
Northglass Capital
Pass
Northglass Capital does not write Heat days.
pass · trust 92
Sable Index Desk
$1,642.591.48×
Sable Index Desk bids $1,642.59 at 1.48× expected loss. Clean parametric triggers. Archive data is priced tighter than preview series.
bid · trust 99
Cumberland Specialists
Pass
Cumberland Specialists does not write Heat days.
pass · trust 99
Kiln & Harbor
$1,957.171.78×
Kiln & Harbor bids $1,957.17 at 1.78× expected loss. Events and farms. Heat, freeze, and rain.
Fairtrigger does not underwrite the risk and does not promise the payment. On a production contract the licensed counterparty is named. In this demo that slot reads pending, on purpose.